(When I was in grade three we had a playground ditty - "Someone and someone up in a tree k . i . s . s. i. n. g." We would sing it to tease young love, doubt it is a thing now.)
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Strange world.
Politics is full of irony, but few twists are as unexpected as Donald Trump’s recent tariff threats, his musings on Canada becoming the 51st state, his petulant ramblings about how Canada isn’t his bestie anymore and his huffy proclamation that he never liked having us over to play on his Nintendo—even if we brought poutine and Canada Dry Ginger Ale—have thrown a lifeline to Canada’s embattled Liberal Party.
After nearly a decade in power, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals seemed limping toward electoral defeat. They were plagued by scandals, economic malaise, and a leader whose personal brand had long since curdled.
Most assumed Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives would cruise to victory with Pierre casually munching on a Granny Smith, but along comes Trump with his tariffs—and now, despite his loathing of the Liberals, Trump has inadvertently become their greatest benefactor.
It has an almost mythological irony, as in Greek mythology when Croesus sent emissaries to the Oracle of Delphi, asking whether he should wage war against Persia.
The Oracle gave him a famously ambiguous prophecy:
“If you go to war, you will destroy a great empire.”
Believing this meant he would destroy Persia, Croesus attacked Cyrus the Great and launched a war against Persia in 547 BCE. Croesus misinterpreted the Oracle’s words.
Instead of destroying Persia, Croesus destroyed his empire.
Did Croesus pulled a Trump?
However, the Liberals snatching victory from the jaws of defeat with Trump holding the jaws open is not assured.
Electoral success hinges not merely on broad public sentiment but on the pivotal swing voters—those 20-30% of the electorate open to persuasion. Understanding their decision-making processes, which blend cognition, emotion, and brand perception, is crucial for any party aiming for victory.
The Power of Swing Voters
Swing voters, often found in suburban areas, among women, and within younger demographics, wield significant influence in elections. In the 2021 Canadian federal election, with a voter turnout of 62.5%, over one-third of voters either changed their decision in the final weeks or remained undecided until the last moment.
Emotion vs. Rationality in Voting Behavior
While it’s comforting to believe that elections are determined by policy analysis, political psychology reveals a more complex reality. Voters’ decisions are often shaped by:
Emotional Responses: Feelings of safety, inspiration, or anger elicited by a leader.
Social Identity: Perceptions of whether a candidate understands and represents individuals like themselves.
Cognitive Shortcuts: Reliance on familiarity, name recognition, and perceived trustworthiness.
Confirmation Bias: Acceptance of information that aligns with pre-existing beliefs.
Research indicates that partisan loyalty functions similarly to brand loyalty; individuals form emotional attachments to political “brands” that resonate with them, engaging with politics like choosing between consumer products.
Sorry, voting is less like Plato vs. Aristotle and more like Coke vs. Pepsi.
Still, does that make it clear why the Libs are suddenly up 8%?
Trump’s Tariffs: A Boon for Liberal Nationalism
The Liberals have adeptly leveraged emotional messaging in response to Trump’s tariffs, igniting a deep-seated sense of Canadian nationalism. This “us vs. them” dynamic allows the Liberals to position themselves as defenders of Canada, a narrative particularly resonant among women voters who value leadership that protects national stability.
The irony of the party that said Canada was a post-national state, and called Canada a shameful genocidal nation is now wrapping itself around the flag is gobsmacking.
The Libs lowered our flag for months on end over graves that weren’t graves - just soil abnormalities. The fact that the Libs, the party that told us sackcloth and ashes should be the new Canadian look, are now leveraging nationalism - wow.
The Conservative Challenge: Beyond “Axe the Tax”
Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have concentrated on economic issues, emphasising inflation, tax relief, and affordability. While pertinent, this message lacks an emotional and aspirational component.
It’s so November 2024, and that seems like years ago. Poilievre’s confrontational approach may rally the base but is less appealing to swing voters, especially women, who prefer optimistic leadership over grievance politics.
Boomers also are moving to the Libs; no fool like an old fool.
And everybody wants to axe the tax, so that’s like a 15-year-old thinking his new Samsung phone will make him popular. Probably not.
Swing voters seek to understand what a candidate opposes and what they stand for.
Pierre gave a good interview about policy plans in an interview with Jordan Peterson, but even there, Jordan’s garish new blazer probably stole the limelight. It’s easy to have your messaging lost in all the digital noise, especially when parliament is prorogued.
The Mark Carney Factor
With Justin Trudeau’s resignation, the Liberals face a leadership vacuum.
Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England has emerged as a frontrunner to replace Trudeau. Carney’s extensive experience in global finance and the fact that voters think he isn’t Steven Guilbeault with a better suit and longer limo help him.
Somehow, voters seem assured that Carney isn’t offering us more annoying, rehashed industrial policy failures with a new green environmental sheen. He is, though.
Not that we are too moved by our cousins across the pond, but the Brits hated Carney and thought he was a rubbish Governor of the Bank of England. But no matter - Canadians are just skimming Carney’s CV anyway, so he’s golden.
And Carney has brilliantly hidden his insane economic ideas in his published books and God knows nobody reads. Diabolical.
If Carney had thrown them in a Youtube Short he’d be screwed.
However, Carney’s association with elite institutions and a Trudeau-like assumption that Paul (Per/Pers) and Mary Canuck (Ey/Em/Eir)1 see climate change as their biggest issue even when they are shoplifting at the food bank to raise enough devalued dollars to cover their rent might strike many as Trudeau 2.0 elitism.
Conclusion: The Need for a Positive Conservative Vision
The Conservatives risk squandering their lead if they continue with negative, reactive messaging.
To connect emotionally with voters, especially swing voters and women, they must articulate a clear, positive vision for Canada’s future.
But it’s hard when voters have the attention span of gnats and are so distracted that Putin could come in from the north, and most of us wouldn’t notice - even if Vlad ended up sitting on our couch whining about Canadian vodka.
(Note: this is a song I wrote and arranged; Drake is not worried about me stealing his thunder, but please listen)
When we got up to charge our phones, we might see the old hamster face, rodent-like due to too much Botox.
As George Orwell noted, “The best way to end a war is to lose it.”
If Poilievre fails to recognise the strategic shift occurring, the Conservatives could lose an election that seemed within their grasp—not due to Liberal strength, but because they failed to inspire.
Time is of the essence.
P.S. If anyone remembers that, “So and so up in the tree, k i s s i n g” schoolyard mockery let me know. Not like I ever heard it, girls never spoke with me until university.
Maybe it was a Winnipeg thing, it was about a hundred years ago at Crane School in Fort Garry, MB. Now they would be up in a tree - not kissing, but looking at their phone and figuring out how to get their gun past the metal detector and the school cop.
